Showing posts with label commonplaces. Show all posts
Showing posts with label commonplaces. Show all posts

Friday, August 12, 2011

Commonplaces and Comments 4

Some Yudkowskian tidbits on politics.

One.

Every profession has a different way to be smart - different skills to learn and rules to follow. You might therefore think that the study of "rationality", as a general discipline, wouldn't have much to contribute to real-life success. And yet it seems to me that how to not be stupid has a great deal in common across professions. If you set out to teach someone how to not turn little mistakes into big mistakes, it's nearly the same art whether in hedge funds or romance, and one of the keys is this: Be ready to admit you lost.

Two.

Politics is the mind-killer. Arguments are soldiers. Once you know which side you're on, you must support all arguments of that side, and attack all arguments that appear to favor the enemy side; otherwise it's like stabbing your soldiers in the back. If you abide within that pattern, policy debates will also appear one-sided to you - the costs and drawbacks of your favored policy are enemy soldiers, to be attacked by any means necessary.

Like it or not, there's a birth lottery for intelligence - though this is one of the cases where the universe's unfairness is so extreme that many people choose to deny the facts. The experimental evidence for a purely genetic component of 0.6-0.8 is overwhelming, but even if this were to be denied, you don't choose your parental upbringing or your early schools either.

Saying "People who buy dangerous products deserve to get hurt!" is not tough-minded. It is a way of refusing to live in an unfair universe. Real tough-mindedness is saying, "Yes, sulfuric acid is a horrible painful death, and no, that mother of 5 children didn't deserve it, but we're going to keep the shops open anyway because we did this cost-benefit calculation." Can you imagine a politician saying that? Neither can I. But insofar as economists have the power to influence policy, it might help if they could think it privately - maybe even say it in journal articles, suitably dressed up in polysyllabismic obfuscationalization so the media can't quote it.

Three.

If the reactor is more likely to melt down, this seems like a 'point against' the reactor, or a 'point against' someone who argues for building the reactor. And if the reactor produces less waste, this is a 'point for' the reactor, or a 'point for' building it. So are these two facts opposed to each other? No. In the real world, no. These two facts may be cited by different sides of the same debate, but they are logically distinct; the facts don't know whose side they're on. The amount of waste produced by the reactor arises from physical properties of that reactor design. Other physical properties of the reactor make the nuclear reaction more unstable. Even if some of the same design properties are involved, you have to separately consider the probability of meltdown, and the expected annual waste generated. These are two different physical questions with two different factual answers.

A scales is not wholly inappropriate for Lady Justice if she is investigating a strictly factual question of guilt or innocence. Either John Smith killed John Doe, or not. We are taught (by E. T. Jaynes) that all Bayesian evidence consists of probability flows between hypotheses; there is no such thing as evidence that "supports" or "contradicts" a single hypothesis, except insofar as other hypotheses do worse or better. So long as Lady Justice is investigating a single, strictly factual question with a binary answer space, a scales would be an appropriate tool. If Justitia must consider any more complex issue, she should relinquish her scales or relinquish her sword.

So am I Blue or Green on regulation, then? I consider myself neither. Imagine, for a moment, that much of what the Greens said about the downside of the Blue policy was true - that, left to the mercy of the free market, many people would be crushed by powers far beyond their understanding, nor would they deserve it. And imagine that most of what the Blues said about the downside of the Green policy was also true - that regulators were fallible humans with poor incentives, whacking on delicately balanced forces with a sledgehammer.

Close your eyes and imagine it. Extrapolate the result. If that were true, then... then you'd have a big problem and no easy way to fix it, that's what you'd have. Does this universe look familiar?

Four.

A candy bar is a superstimulus: it contains more concentrated sugar, salt, and fat than anything that exists in the ancestral environment. A candy bar matches taste buds that evolved in a hunter-gatherer environment, but it matches those taste buds much more strongly than anything that actually existed in the hunter-gatherer environment. The signal that once reliably correlated to healthy food has been hijacked, blotted out with a point in tastespace that wasn't in the training dataset - an impossibly distant outlier on the old ancestral graphs. Tastiness, formerly representing the evolutionarily identified correlates of healthiness, has been reverse-engineered and perfectly matched with an artificial substance. Unfortunately there's no equally powerful market incentive to make the resulting food item as healthy as it is tasty. We can't taste healthfulness, after all.

Evolution seems to have struck a compromise, or perhaps just aggregated new systems on top of old. Homo sapiens are still tempted by food, but our oversized prefrontal cortices give us a limited ability to resist temptation. Not unlimited ability - our ancestors with too much willpower probably starved themselves to sacrifice to the gods, or failed to commit adultery one too many times. The video game players who died must have exercised willpower (in some sense) to keep playing for so long without food or sleep; the evolutionary hazard of self-control.

Thursday, July 21, 2011

Commonplaces 3

I've noticed that Manufacturing Consent: The Political Economy of the Mass Media, by Noam Chomsky and Edward S. Herman, has been showing up frequently in my newsfeeds as of late. As I have found it almost unavoidably helpful in explaining current trends, I am glad to reread it.

Take the latter link, from Matt Taibbi, on the abandonment of the public option a few years ago:
There are some days when it almost seems like the national press is making a conscious effort to prove Noam Chomsky’s Manufacturing Consent gospel. If the national commercial media really did exist solely to perpetuate the attitudes of the political elite, and to create phony debates around unthreatening policy poles, endlessly pitting a conservative/reactionary status quo against an “acceptable” position of dissent — if that thesis were the absolute truth, then you’d see just what we’re seeing now in the coverage of the health care debate.
I like to think in Bayesian terms where I can. One of the remarkable things about Bayesian learning is that it can take place; we somehow formulate a few important hypotheses and focus on them, a process which has a formal, information-theoretic description. Naturally, even unconsciously, we acquire information which leads us to be confident in hypotheses before rigorous confirmation. It sometimes goes well, as with Einstein, and it sometimes goes badly, as with conspiratorial thinking.

This is mostly how propaganda and advertising function. Largely without our being aware, our choices are probabilistically yet strongly constrained by the features of our environment. By structuring media institutions in certain ways, governments and the powerful classes can shape public opinion, little to no outright censorship required. This idea is not original to Chomsky and Herman. Rather, it is a staple of the left-rationalist tradition exemplified by Russell, Orwell, and other giants. Take Orwell's preface to Animal Farm:
Any fairminded person with journalistic experience will admit that during this war official censorship has not been particularly irksome. We have not been subjected to the kind of totalitarian 'co-ordination' that it might have been reasonable to expect. The press has some justified grievances, but on the whole the Government has behaved well and has been surprisingly tolerant of minority opinions. The sinister fact about literary censorship in England is that it is largely voluntary. Unpopular ideas can be silenced, and inconvenient facts kept dark, without the need for any official ban. Anyone who has lived long in a foreign country will know of instances of sensational items of news - things which on their own merits would get the big headlines - being kept right out of the British press, not because the Government intervened but because of a general tacit agreement that 'it wouldn't do' to mention that particular fact. So far as the daily newspapers go, this is easy to understand. The British press is extremely centralized, and most of it is owned by wealthy men who have every motive to be dishonest on certain important topics. But the same kind of veiled censorship also operates in books and periodicals, as well as in plays, films and radio. At any given moment there is an orthodoxy, a body of ideas which it is assumed that all right-thinking people will accept without question. It is not exactly forbidden to say this, that or the other, but it is 'not done' to say it, just as in mid-Victorian times it was 'not done' to mention trousers in the presence of a lady. Anyone who challenges the prevailing orthodoxy finds himself silenced with surprising effectiveness. A genuinely unfashionable opinion is almost never given a fair hearing, either in the popular press or in the highbrow periodicals.
I would go so far as to say that Chomsky's chief accomplishment in political writing has been in performing a rigorous, modern application of the ideas of Orwell and Russell. Since reading many of Orwell's essays and Russell's works, especially Free Thought and Official Propaganda, Justice in War-Time, and Political Ideals, I would even say that he is sloppy not to properly attribute these ideas more regularly.

Take the second link in this post:
The real argument about free speech lies elsewhere. It’s not just whether you get a platform, but how big yours is compared with other people’s. Free speech means little, though not nothing, if the opportunities for influencing opinion open to some – such as billionaire non-citizens domiciled in business class – makes those of others nanometrically small. The issue is not only that moguls like Murdoch and Berlusconi make clear to editors what it’s politic to print, that the titles are used as commercial platforms to hawk other products, and that these media safeguard their power by a code of omertà that buries news of their own felonies. It’s also that, as Noam Chomsky and Edward Herman pointed out long ago, the attempt to reach the ‘demographic’ sought by the advertisers who form the media’s staple revenue base means that content – including ‘news’ – is skewed towards the bland, upscale, aspirational. They engineer the public they purport to reflect.
The notes about what `free speech' must really be to be free appeared about 65 years before `long ago' in Russell's Free Thought and Official Propaganda. The manufacture of audiences by mere presentation of material has been understood for at least as long. Chomsky and Herman deserve credit for explicating a model which describes and captures these notions, but I wish Russell and Orwell received more love. For all their (mis)citation, I still suspect that they are rarely read.

For the above reasons, I think of the Chomsky/Herman propaganda model as an instance of the Russell/Orwell insights. And they do their job very well. Yes, it was published in 1988 and media have changed a lot since then, but it still remains quite powerful.1

What is the propaganda model? The idea is that media function as a filter which serves the interests of a narrow elite. This is not a conspiracy theory, as has been alleged*, and as I will discuss later. Rather, Manufacturing Consent establishes that ideological filtering exists, and it outlines how this filter functions.

Before entering into details, try to imagine some of the ways in which filtering may take place. The common sense examples which come to mind are the exact subject of Manufacturing Consent: conflicts of interest introduced by ownership - see Fox's coverage of the News of The World hacking scandal - and by advertisers. Access journalism is another example. If I recall correctly, South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford was explicitly promised softball interviews in e-mails from journalists in exchange for exclusive access after his weird adventure in 2009. But this need not be so crude as the underlying understanding is quite obvious: if you really are a hard interviewer, you'll have more trouble getting the golden interviews. This process is supplemented by intentional leaks. Another constraint is social: journalists are showered with too many awards, developing a `working relationship' with those who they cover as they do so. And those juicy, high-level leaks? Usually, those merely reflect the quibbles of the powerful. The interplay here is very conscious and very obvious. A similar relationship is constructed by embedding journalists with troops. If the unit you are covering, which is full of nice guys who have protected you, commits an atrocity, do you report it?

Another idea of interest is concision, as explained in this excerpt of a horrifyingly campy documentary about Chomsky and Manufacturing Consent:
Suppose I get up on Nightline, say given, you know whatever it is, two minutes, and I say Gaddafi is a terrorist, Khomeini is a murderer, you know etc. etc. Uh, the Russians, you know, invaded Afghanistan, uh, all this sort of stuff. I don't need any evidence; everybody just nods. On the other hand, suppose you say something that just isn't regurgitating conventional pieties. Suppose you say something that's the least bit unexpected or controversial. [...] Well you know people will quite reasonably expect to know what you mean. Why did you say that? I've never heard that before. Uh, if you said that, you better have a reason. You know, better have some evidence. And in fact, you better have a lot of evidence, because that's a pretty startling comment. Uh, you can't give evidence if you're stuck with concision. You know that's the genius of this structural constraint. [Rough transcription and emphasis mine.]
This is made even more severe by another example which comes to mind and comes in for much popular abuse: the moronic `two sides' format of presentation adopted for any issue deemed to be controversial. Those issues approach for such `objective presentation' are also selected in accordance with propagandistic interests. Issues which should not be partisan, like `anthropogenic global warming exists', become automatically so. And if someone has a decent case to make, their time is further limited by the bleating moron on the other side of the screen. This format allows discreditable, dishonest notions free air time whenever it serves the correct interests. "We're not giving free propaganda time to corporations; we're merely presenting `the issue'." Note also where obligatory air-time is in fact obligatory; socialist-bashing requires no `other side' for the purposes of `balance'. Basic scientific facts like evolution, on the other hand...

We can keep listing major flaws in media. The tendency toward sensationalism is a perfect example, and I think it is a problem prior to media itself. Russell points out some of the reasons for this tendency in The Need for Political Scepticism (1923) in the context of political parties:
Wherever party politics exist, the appeal of a politician is primarily to a section, while his opponents appeal to an opposite section. His success depends upon turning his section into a majority. A measure which appeals to all sections equally will presumably be common ground between the parties, and will therefore be useless to the party politician. Consequently he concentrates attention upon those measures which are disliked by the section which forms the nucleus of his opponents' supporters.
So the focus of the American left on Michelle Bachmann and the focus of Michelle Bachmann on banning same-sex marriage make perfect sense. Media will tend to focus on issues which are divisive and do little to upset the balance of power. (So things everybody hates are not seriously addressed, expect perhaps with vague slogans.) Roe v. Wade, evolution, religious fanaticism, and gay marriage are ever-serviceable. I say this not to trivialize these issues, but to point out that their primary utility, up to the media, is ratings-generating controversy, while their primary utility, up to politicians, is in functioning according to electoral interest in the manner described by Russell. I think that many bloggers who traffic in such topics understand what they can do for ratings.

Sensationalism is fleeting by nature. Topics are interchangeable, so big topics tend to be unchangeable. The 24-hour news cycle helps: cable media are always looking to turn the pettiest issue into all-day coverage. So Anthony Weiner quickly replaces Libya and drone attacks in the news, and once the dust settles a wholly new topic has emerged. Even if substantial, critical coverage of power in the mainstream press rears its ugly head - and occasionally it does - it is quickly obscured by something less threatening. Wars, unlike Paris Hilton, do not make good fodder for the sort of sustained media campaign required to overcome an establishment consensus. Sensationalism also has the effect of selecting for public speakers who tend to say silly, dishonest, and divisive things. Are you a socially and fiscally economic conservative embarrassed by Bachmann? Why do you think that the camera loves her? Are you a left-leaning fellow who doesn't like to be associated with Michael Moore or Al Sharpton? With sensationalism, a looser tongue catches more coverage. A person born for the modern camera is devoid of humility; he speaks as much as possible, perhaps occasionally interrupting the stream of slogans with an absurd statement or bit of sharp rhetoric to generate attention.

Along with the aforementioned biases produced by pecuniary interest, cost-of-production is another major factor. I read somewhere, though I fail to recall the source, an article on the increasing reliance on opinion columns to attract readers. This is because the `mere smoke of opinion' - I found this gem of Thoreau's via Bill Moyers - is cheap to produce. There's no shortage of volunteers for the task. In-depth reportage is difficult to come by. Where factual reportage is undertaken, it is in the interest of the media to reduce the cost as much as is possible. In the internet age, this might be the regurgitation of internet stories, but advertisements designed to look like news (video news releases) also serve, as do the cheapest sources - handily provided by officials. The publicly subsidized story is cheaper to tell, after all. Journalists are actually instructed to prefer such official sources.

One might also notice that despite there being a tremendous number of outlets, big conglomerates own most of the media by impact. In particular, there is a set of outlets, called `agenda-setting', which sets the line of the day. It is not coincidental that thousands of papers across America manage to focus on roughly the same topics everyday. What is important is what is printed by major outlets, especially The Washington Post and The New York Times. As they represent the `established left', their function is also in boundary-setting: this is as `left' as `serious people' can be. With the rightward lurching of American politics, I wonder if this description is still accurate: Keynesianism a la Krugman has very little political capital, though it has some media representation. True, there have been stingy stimulus measures, but Keynesians have consistently objected to them as inadequate. But this area is in flux at the moment, and I imagine that eventually the Keynesians will eventually recover much of their former influence.

So before getting into the details of the propaganda model, I think we should already feel motivated to change the institution of media. I must admit that it plays to my prejudices, but I think these prejudices to be sound on inspection. I further think that they are obvious truths. Many of the complaints I have suggested are quite common. It is therefore interesting that the media, which purport to serve the public interest and to concern themselves primarily with informing and educating the electorate, have not taken fundamental measures to address these complaints so as to actually serve their stated purposes. Perhaps their function is not the high-minded, democratic one they imagine it to be. Maybe something else is in the way, some structural feature which well-intentioned individual journalists cannot overcome, something unresponsive to popular pressure and interests. To understand this is to move past the mostly accurate but woefully trite and incomplete criticisms of the Jon Stewart variety.

*Page citations which follow, unless otherwise noted, are from the linked edition of Manufacturing Consent.*

A propaganda model focuses on this inequality of wealth and power and its multilevel effects on mass-media interests and choices. It traces the routes by which money and power are about to filter out the news fit to print, marginalize dissent, and allow the government and dominant private interests to get their messages across to the public. The essential ingredients of our propaganda model, or set of news ``filters,'' fall under the following headings: (1) the size, concentrated ownership, owner wealth, and profit orientation of the dominant mass-media firms; (2) advertising as the primary income source of the mass-media; (3) the reliance of the media on information provided by government, business, and ``experts'' funded and approved by these primary sources and agents of power; (4) ``flak'' as a means of disciplining the media; and (5) ``anticommunism'' as a national religion and control mechanism. (p.2)
(5) may require some updating. Anticommunism and antisocialism are still national religions, but the key `other' these days are terrorists, very broadly conceived. Less `othery', market platitudes almost border on religious incantation, as do myths about our founding fathers.

A propaganda model of the media may be described as a power interest-oriented filtering process which is inherent to the structure of the media. Therefore we should expect a successful model to not require or rely on conspiracy theories in explaining common media behaviors; the workings of and evidence for such a model should be public knowledge.

Let's first look at the former item, the `internal logic' demanded by Bolkestein. Chomsky and Herman answer this with institutional analysis, which as employed is the conjunction of a description of the media and the expectation that the actors appearing in that description tend to act in their perceived interests and in the manner that they are educated to act, consciously and not. As Chomsky puts it to Andrew Marr: "[the agenda-setting media e.g. the New York Times] are big corporations selling privileged audiences to other corporations. Now the question is: what picture of the world would a rational person expect to come out of this structure?"

Something should be said about what we should not expect as well. Given the propaganda model, we might expect that the elite healthcare debate would have been broader than it has turned out to be. Cheap healthcare as provided by a public option or universal system e.g. single payer are well-within the spectrum of elite interest. And since such systems are cheaper and would help to contain the rising cost of healthcare, they should lie within the spectrum of business interest. The fact that the system is unsustainable should be still more of a spur. Yet that is the actual story: insurance companies, pharmaceuticals, and the financial sector dominate the lobbies and keep the system private, but some opening is provided by the fact that companies like GM suffer under our system. And that opening is fairly recent, despite decades of popular concern. The restriction of what little opening there is, as lamented by Taibbi, also follows the model: overwhelmingly, commentators fell in line with the two parties as lines were drawn.

Now what is it that we expect given the model? The important evidence is comparative: qualitatively similar events should receive differing coverage if elite interests diverge. For example, victims of enemy regimes are `worthy', while victims of friendly regimes are `unworthy'. Focusing on one aspect of the coverage, to the exclusion of the other, would fail to contrast the propaganda model against the conventional view that the media are the faithful servants of the popular good.
In sum, a propaganda approach to media coverage suggests a systematic and highly political dichotomization in news coverage based on serviceability to important domestic power interests. This should be observable in dichotomized choices of story and in the volume and quality of coverage. (p.35)
These examples comprise the bulk of the book, the notes, and the citations. By chapter, they are (2) worthy and unworthy victims; (3) legitimizing versus meaningless elections; (4) the KGB-Bulgarian plot to kill the Pope/market disinformation; (5) Vietnam; and (6) Laos and Cambodia.

A `worthy victim' is Jerzy Popieluszko, a Solidarity leader in Poland (p.42). His murder by Polish secret police was carefully and extensively reported, reporting accompanied by cries for justice, particularly at the highest levels of governance (pp.42-3). To contrast, Archbishop Romero was an `unworthy victim'. Coverage was relatively sparse; his murder was attributed to `extreme' right-wing forces - not the U.S.-supported government which was actually responsible; his legacy was misrepresented; responsibility for his death was not to be found at high levels (pp.48-59). `Legitimate elections' are those which get the `right' result, such as El Salvador (1982), where turnout was forced and voting was supervised by military forces. `Meaningless elections' are those which get the `wrong' result, such as the relatively free election of the Sandanistas in Nicaragua (1984). The former are triumphs of young democracy, whereas the latter are unfortunate shams which would be anti-democratic to respect. High voter turnout, proof of legitimacy in the former, is a hollow number in the latter, and possible coercion becomes a bigger concern (pp.121-3). In the case of the Nicaraguan election, we have also a case of likely case of false leaking: on election night, a story broke claiming that a freighter of MIGs was bound for Nicaragua. Correction invited no retrospection (p.137). The fourth chapter seems strange to me: I am too young to remember any `KGB-Bulgarian' plot about the attempted assassination of Pope John Paul II. There are allegations by ex-CIA after the publication of Manufacturing Consent, namely Melvin A. Goodman and Harold Ford, that pressure was placed on the CIA to claim that the assassination was ordered or insinuated by the KGB (p.xxvii). But even without this revelation, the allegations of a KGB plot are bizarre on their face. This case is clear-cut, but it feels out of place.2 The retrospective on media involvement in the Vietnam war is more important. I think all adult Americans have heard it:
``For the first time in history," Robert Elegant writes, "the outcome of a war was determined not in the battlefield, but on the printed page, and above all, on the television screen," leading to the defeat of the United States in Vietnam. The belief that the media, particularly television, were responsible for U.S. government failures is widely expressed. (p.170)
Interestingly, the debate takes place over whether or not the media are unpatriotic, or merely `unmindful' (p.171), just as debates over Vietnam center over tactics. That the US mission was a catastrophic and immoral invasion of a small country seeking self-determination naturally does not emerge. At worst, Vietnam is a mistake, tragic but well-intended (pp.172-3). That's the nature of the post-Vietnam debate. I hope I need not explain how the media covered the war as it unfolded.3

Chomsky and Herman do not claim that the filtering is perfect and admit that on occasion, something of substance gets through (p.306). But the way in which it gets through is important. A recent example would be the 2005 revelation of the NSA wiretapping/SWIFT monitoring programs by the New York Times, a leak which was withheld by NYT for a year for excellent NYT reasons: Bush asked them not to publish it. And this is no outlier; it is the product of a sentiment which has become more explicit with the arrival of Wikileaks - an actual oppositional organization working for transparency - where `responsible journalism' means uncritical deference to the suggestions and demands of officials. The ongoing media reaction to Wikileaks is propaganda model par excellence.

What about the canonical example of disputatious, truth-to-power journalism, Watergate?
History has been kind enough to contrive for us a ``controlled experiment'' to determine just what was at stake during the Watergate period, when the confrontational stance of the media reached its peak. The answer is clear and precise: powerful groups are capable of defending themselves, not surprisingly; and by media standards, it is a scandal when their position and rights are threatened. By contrast, as long as illegalities and violations of democratic substance are confined to marginal groups or distant victims of U.S. military attack, or result in a diffused cost imposed on the general population, media opposition is muted or absent altogether. (p.300)
The major scandal of Watergate as portrayed in the mainstream press was that the Nixon administration sent a collection of petty criminals to break into the Democratic party headquarters, for reasons that remain obscure. The Democratic party represents powerful domestic interests, solidly based in the business community. Nixon's action is therefore a scandal. The Socialist Workers party, a legal political party, represents no powerful interests. Therefore, there was no scandal when it was revealed, just as passions over Watergate reached their zenith, that the FBI had been disrupting its activities by illegal break-ins and other measures for a decade, a violation of democratic principle far more extensive and serious than anything charged during the Watergate hearings. What is more, these actions of the national political police were only one element of government programs extending over many administrations to deter independent political action, stir up violence in the ghettos, and undermine the popular movements that were beginning to engage sectors of the generally marginalized public in the arena of decision-making. These covert and illegal programs were revealed in court cases and elsewhere during the Watergate period, but they never entered the congressional proceedings and received only limited media attention. Even the complicity of the FBI in the police assassination of a Black Panther organizer in Chicago was not a scandal, in marked contrast to Nixon's ``enemies list,'' which identified powerful people who were denigrated in private but suffered no consequences. (pp.299-300)
The coverage of Watergate, as compared with COINTELPRO, is a perfect example of the model in action. The press may be adversarial in pursuing corruption which hurts elites and publicizing sleaze stories and still function well-within the boundaries of the model; in fact, this is often what the model predicts.

Other objections are addressed throughout the book, and the major ones - apart from those concerning new technology - were all anticipated in 1988. A precis of the arguments and their refutations is provided by Herman's retrospective, which again was published in 2003. But it might have been published today:
In the health insurance controversy of 1992-1993, the media's refusal to take the single-payer option seriously, despite apparent widespread public support and the effectiveness of the system in Canada, served well the interests of the insurance and medical service complex (Canham-Clyne 1994). The uncritical media reporting and commentary on the alleged urgency of fiscal restraint and a balanced budget in the years 1992-1996 fit well the business community's desire to reduce the social budget and weaken regulation. The applicability of the propaganda model in these and other cases, including the 'drug wars,' seems clear (Chomsky 1991: 114-21).
I think this is more than enough said. Now you too can enjoy watching reasonable opinions and proposals die under neglect and dismissal and watch this story be told how it should be, as tragic, as told by the alternative press you now read because you're tired of cable.



*Note: I cannot find the full Chomsky-Bolkestein debate, try as I have.

1. The linked edition has a lengthy introduction dating from 2002, which addresses the effects of the internet, among other things. Edward S. Herman wrote a retrospective in 2003, available here.

2. A brief overview: In claiming that the pope's would-be assassin, Mehmet Ali Agca, was a hired hand of the Bulgarians of the KGB, the reported motive was as follows: "the preeminent motive in the assassination attempt was a Soviet desire to weaken NATO, to be accomplished by implicating a Turk in the assassination of the pope" (p.146). After seventeen months in an Italian prison, Agca, the would-be assassin of Turkist Fascist beliefs - a member of the rightest `Gray Wolves', confessed to the desired account. The fact that Agca is a nationalist was treated as proof that the KGB are clever at covering their tracks (p.147). The facts that Agca had threatened to kill the pope in 1979 (p.148), that he was a committed Fascist (p.148), that the KGB plot failed to take care of Agca after the attempt (p.147), that Agca's travel through Bulgaria was standard Gray Wolf procedure due to ease of secrecy (p.149), that he had acquired the weapon through convoluted right-wing networks free from KGB-Bulgarian oversight (p.149), and that the KGB-Bulgarian conspirators managed to be - as bad conspiracy theories tend to require - a strange mixture of competent and incompetent were ignored.
The trial in Rome was awkward for the Western media, as Agca quickly declared himself to be Jesus and, more important, failed to produce any supportive evidence backing up his claims of Bulgarian involvement. The diligent and extensive court investigation found numerous Gray Wolves linked to Agca in the period just up to his assassination attempt, but no witness to his (allegedly) numerous meetings with Bulgarians in Rome, no money, no car, and, in the end, no conviction. (p.166)
There is also evidence of pressuring during Agca's prison term (pp.164-6).

3. In this article, Chomsky makes a passing comment which doesn't fly: "1984 is so popular because it's trivial and it attacks our enemies. If Orwell had dealt with a different problem-- ourselves--his book wouldn't have been so popular. In fact, it probably wouldn't have been published." And it does not fly for the same comparative reasons employed in his propaganda model: the now-gone vogue of Burnham's The Managerial Revolution is one example, and more closely still, Huxley's assault on consumerism in Brave New World is strangely popular and similarly instructed in our schools. The reception of 1984, along with Orwell's other works and Orwell as a person, also undermines this casual explanation. Few other writers come in for so much unjust maligning, particularly from the established left but even within the dissident left. Chomsky is as far as I know an exception in admiring Orwell. (The right, on the other hand, simply reworks Orwell as a neoconservative and praises him as such.)

Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Reading Popper

Lately I have been rereading Karl Popper's The Open Society and Its Enemies: The Spell of Plato. (The text is available in a sidebar here.)

While I am enjoying the reading, I think it mostly valuable as highlighting a something-to-watch-for instead of establishing a this-is-incorrect. The general arguments which he presents (mostly elsewhere) against historicism are not very convincing. Instead, I feel that a historicist theory will require a very strong set of evidence which would be difficult to achieve. As far as I know, none has such evidence.

The key value is sociological, and limited; the text is a somewhat verbose supplement to Orwell's writing on the totalitarian mindset. For example, Orwell warns against the tendency to think in trends*:
It will be seen that at each point Burnham is predicting a continuation of the thing that is happening. Now the tendency to do this is not simply a bad habit, like inaccuracy or exaggeration, which one can correct by taking thought. It is a major mental disease, and its roots lie partly in cowardice and partly in the worship of power, which is not fully separable from cowardice.
Popper says a similar thing in The Poverty of Historicism.

I find this with nearly all of the worthwhile insights and cautions. Avid Orwellians and Russellians will find them unsurprising. Perhaps as a hostile primer on Plato it has added merit...



*Note: I found via Google search a book which claims that Orwell was a historicist by his "attacking the antihistoricism of totalitarian regimes, that is, their notorious tendency to rewrite history according to the ideological requirements of the present political situation" (p.117). After reading this egregious abuse of terminology and noting the frequency of unnecessary citation, I think it safe to conclude that the author, Joseph Gabel, is a garden-variety French philosophe hack. Crude re-writing of history is not `antihistoricism'! But then, I should not be surprised to find stupid writing about Orwell on a Google search. Most of what is written about him is false and stupid.

Sunday, July 10, 2011

Commonplaces 2

There are very few books which I would place next to Orwell's Homage to Catalonia for their historical interest and importance, both in matter and in mere existence. I found just such a book at a coffee shop near campus which - oh, my happy stars - also cheaply sells pieces of historical arcana. Were it not for this, I doubt I would have ever found Encounters with Lenin, along with several other gems amongst the ore.

The author, Nikolay Valentinov, is himself something of an enigma; `Nikolay Valentinov' is one of many pseudonyms employed by Nikolay Vladislavovich Volsky. But he and the translators (Paul Rosta and Brian Pearce) have done an excellent job in the composition and form, which is in many good ways stereotypically Russian. Encounters with Lenin discusses the background, process, and aftermath of Valentinov's time spent with Lenin in late 1903 to early 1904. Those familiar with Soviet history will recognize the importance of the date: this is the most important period in the Bolshevik-Menshevik split in the Russian Social Democratic Party. Valentinov, a rather low-ranking agitator at the time, had the fortune of listening to Lenin while he composed One Step Forward, Two Steps Back. Valentinov would ultimately fall out with Lenin and the party over a philosophic dispute concerning empirico-criticism, an early positivist critique of naive materialism propounded by e.g. Ernst Mach. The ultimate aftermath of this dispute within the RSDP would be the publication of Lenin's Materialism and Empirico-criticism, which under Stalin became unquestionable `holy writ' (p.256). And once Stalin makes it an issue, "the problem inevitably passes from the realm of philosophy to the realm of the G.P.U.-N.K.V.D.-M.G.B." (p.157).

This is what I mean whenever I say of books like Homage to Catalonia, Encounters with Lenin, and The Time of Stalin (similar to The Gulag Archipelago) that they are important in both matter and existence. Valentinov is very introspective and philosophical. By this virtue, his memoir is important as psychological insight into a young Bolshevik, psychological insight into Lenin, introductory material to the philosophy of Marxism and critical materialism, foreshadowing of the Leninist and Stalinist tyrannies, and important historical arcana such as that the orthodox Marxists did not expect the revolutions of 1905 and 1917, the essential voluntarism in Leninism, the essence of the Bolshevik-Menshevik split in reality and as according to Lenin, and that Lenin's expectation that he would see a socialist revolution even in 1903-1904 -- a deviation from the contemporaneous orthodoxy.

What attracted the young revolutionaries to Marxism?

We seized on Marxism because we were attracted by its sociological and economic optimism, its strong belief, buttressed by facts and figures, that the development of the economy, the development of capitalism (this was why we were so interested in it), by demoralizing and eroding the foundations of the old society, was creating new social forces (including us) which would certainly sweep away the autocratic régime together with all its abominations. With the optimism of youth we had been searching for a formula that offered hope, and we found it in Marxism. We were also attracted by its European nature. Marxism came from Europe. It did not smell and taste of home-grown mould and provincialism, but was new, fresh, and exciting. Marxism held out a promise that we would not stay a semi-Asiatic country, but would become part of the West with its culture, institutions and attributes of a free political system. The West was our guiding light.

But Marxism was not entirely satisfactory. As I mentioned earlier, it put the revolutionaries in a rather uncomfortable place: according to Marxist formulae, the revolution was far away, probably beyond the lifetimes even of the youth. They had to content themselves with reformism, developing the working class which was still insignificant in Russia and doing their best to propagandize it. But propaganda had little effect; revolutionaries remained a tiny minority. Naturally, the young Marxists were discontent. What they ultimately did was what their predecessors, e.g. the Will of the People (Narodnaya Volya) who had assassinated the Tsar, did, which was to adopt (under Lenin's direction) the Jacobin approach to revolution. More properly, the revolution of 1917 was a coup, not a socialist revolution, the philosophy of which traces back to the Jacobins, the Narodnaya Volya, Tkachev, Chernyshevsky, and other Russian revolutionaries.

Replying to a question about what the authors of `Young Russia' [a famous Jacobin pamphlet] had known and read, Zaychnevsky answered: `At that time we hadn't read the Marxist stuff yet.' A most interesting remark. The inference seems obvious that the October Revolution led by Lenin could have been accomplished without any `Marxist stuff', simply by following the precepts of Chernyshevsky, who had `transformed' Lenin's mind. (p.76)

In all this the party was guided by Lenin:

"Rejection of the Jacobin method of struggle leads quite logically to rejection of the dictatorship of the proletariat, that is, of the coercion which is necessary and obligatory, which is indispensable for the smashing and annihilation of the enemies of the proletariat and for securing the victory of the socialist revolution. A proper bourgeois revolution cannot be carried out without a Jacobin purge--to say nothing of a socialist revolution. [...]. The dictatorship of the proletariat is an absolutely meaningless expression without Jacobin coercion." - Lenin (p.128)

It was the question of centralized power, especially in the hands of Lenin who saw himself as the only person capable of wielding dictatorial power, that divided the RSDP.

It became quite obvious from what Lenin was saying that the right to the conductor's baton inside the party could belong only to him. Was this bombast, an exaggerated vainglorious emphasis on his own special qualities and merits? No, his right was asserted with such simplicity and such certainty that he might have been saying: two and two make four. For Lenin this was simply a matter which required no proof. I was at first shocked by his unshakeable faith in himself, which many years later I called his faith in his destiny, in his conviction that he was pre-ordained to carry out some great historical mission. (p.114)

This consequences of centralized power and the mantras of `party discipline' which inevitably attended it are now obvious. But I think it worthwhile to see who saw the problem coming more or less in advance. In part, Rosa Luxembourg deserves credit, as does Bertrand Russell. But it was interesting to me to see how Valentinov was (partly) inoculated to domination, namely through his previous exposure to unorthodox intellectual material and his understanding of scientific philosophy -- which Marxism was and is not, despite its pretensions otherwise.

Speaking of science, this is roughly what it looked like:

``Guided by principles laid down by Comrade Stalin, we have studied the development of complex life units (cells) from the simpler forms of living matter, from albuminous bodies capable of metabolism. In this way Virchow's idealist theory (it states that cells and their components can originate only from cells through fission, and that nothing is alive if it is not cellular) has been experimentally refuted and a new dialectical materialist cell theory has been created--a theory which teaches us that every cell consists of living matter and that beyond the cell, there is a lower and simpler form also consisting of living matter.'' - Olga Borisovna Lepeshinskaya, (Pravda, 1 Jan. 1951)(p.85-86 in footnote)

You read this correctly. You might know of Lysenko, but Lepeshinskaya is now less known. She made a name for herself by rejecting cellular biology. Never let it be said that the Soviets were `scientific materialists'.

Commonplaces 1

Bertrand Russell, Sceptical Essays (1920s), pp.108-9:

A party which is to obtain power must, in a democracy, make an appeal to which the majority of the nation responds. For reasons which will appear in the course of the argument, an appeal which is widely successful, with the existing democracy, can hardly fail to be harmful. Therefore no important political party is likely to have a useful programme, and if useful measures are to be passed, it must be by means of some other machinery than party government.

ibid, p.105:

Some time ago, the Canadian delegate on the League of Nations Commission suggested that no woman, however old, should be allowed to travel on a steamer unless accompanied by her husband or by one of her parents. This proposal was not adopted, but it illustrates the direction in which we are moving. It is, of course, obvious that such measures turn all women into `white slaves'; women cannot have any freedom without a risk that some will use it for purposes of `immorality'. The only logical goal of these reformers is the purdah.

Bertrand Russell, The Practice and Theory of Bolshevism (1921). The oft-made religion analogy:

Bolshevism is not merely a political doctrine; it is also a religion, with elaborate dogmas and inspired scriptures. When Lenin wishes to prove some proposition, he does so, if possible, by quoting texts from Marx and Engels. A full-fledged Communist is not merely a man who believes that land and capital should be held in common, and their produce distributed as nearly equally as possible. He is a man who entertains a number of elaborate and dogmatic beliefs—such as philosophic materialism, for example—which may be true, but are not, to a scientific temper, capable of being known to be true with any certainty. This habit, of militant certainty about objectively doubtful matters, is one from which, since the Renaissance, the world has been gradually emerging, into that temper of constructive and fruitful scepticism which constitutes the scientific outlook.

By a religion I mean a set of beliefs held as dogmas, dominating the conduct of life, going beyond or contrary to evidence, and inculcated by methods which are emotional or authoritarian, not intellectual. By this definition, Bolshevism is a religion: that its dogmas go beyond or contrary to evidence, I shall try to prove in what follows. Those who accept Bolshevism become impervious to scientific evidence, and commit intellectual suicide. Even if all the doctrines of Bolshevism were true, this would still be the case, since no unbiased examination of them is tolerated. One who believes, as I do, that the free intellect is the chief engine of human progress, cannot but be fundamentally opposed to Bolshevism, as much as to the Church of Rome.

ibid:

Western Socialists who have visited Russia have seen fit to suppress the harsher features of the present régime, and have disseminated a belief among their followers that the millennium would be quickly realized there if there were no war and no blockade. Even those Socialists who are not Bolsheviks for their own country have mostly done very little to help men in appraising the merits or demerits of Bolshevik methods. By this lack of courage they have exposed Western Socialism to the danger of becoming Bolshevik through ignorance of the price that has to be paid and of the uncertainty as to whether the desired goal will be reached in the end.

ibid:

Again, the intolerance and lack of liberty which has been inherited from the Tsarist régime is probably to be regarded as Russian rather than Communist. If a Communist Party were to acquire power in England, it would probably be met by a less irresponsible opposition, and would be able to show itself far more tolerant than any government can hope to be in Russia if it is to escape assassination. This, however, is a matter of degree. A great part of the despotism which characterizes the Bolsheviks belongs to the essence of their social philosophy, and would have to be reproduced, even if in a milder form, wherever that philosophy became dominant.

ibid:

Friends of Russia here think of the dictatorship of the proletariat as merely a new form of representative government, in which only working men and women have votes, and the constituencies are partly occupational, not geographical. They think that ``proletariat'' means ``proletariat,'' but ``dictatorship'' does not quite mean ``dictatorship.'' This is the opposite of the truth. When a Russian Communist speaks of dictatorship, he means the word literally, but when he speaks of the proletariat, he means the word in a Pickwickian sense. He means the ``class-conscious'' part of the proletariat, i.e., the Communist Party.

ibid:

Perhaps love of liberty is incompatible with whole-hearted belief in a panacea for all human ills. If so, I cannot but rejoice in the sceptical temper of the Western world. I went to Russia a Communist; but contact with those who have no doubts has intensified a thousandfold my own doubts, not as to Communism in itself, but as to the wisdom of holding a creed so firmly that for its sake men are willing to inflict widespread misery.

ibid. The following comparison came naturally to the Bolsheviks as well, and it would do much to advance Stalin's prospects:

[Trotsky] is very good-looking, with admirable wavy hair; one feels he would be irresistible to women. I felt in him a vein of gay good humour, so long as he was not crossed in any way. I thought, perhaps wrongly, that his vanity was even greater than his love of power—the sort of vanity that one associates with an artist or actor. The comparison with Napoleon was forced upon one.

ibid. Recall that this was written in 1921:

It is possible that scientific intelligence may, in time, reach the point when it will enable rivalry to exterminate the human race. This is the most hopeful method of bringing about an end of war.

ibid. A very common socialist objection to Bolshevism at the time -- one which would largely be forgotten when the threat was fully realized:

Marxians never sufficiently recognize that love of power is quite as strong a motive, and quite as great a source of injustice, as love of money; yet this must be obvious to any unbiased student of politics. It is also obvious that the method of violent revolution leading to a minority dictatorship is one peculiarly calculated to create habits of despotism which would survive the crisis by which they were generated.

Bertrand Russell, Ideas that have Harmed Mankind (1946).

The ascetic depreciation of the pleasures of sense has not promoted kindliness or tolerance, or any of the other virtues that a non-superstitious outlook on human life would lead us to desire. On the contrary, when a man tortures himself he feels that it gives him a right to torture others, and inclines him to accept any system of dogma by which this right is fortified.

Now is a good time to recall the quote from 1921:

Perhaps, though I scarcely dare to hope it, the hydrogen bomb will terrify mankind into sanity and tolerance. If this should happen we shall have reason to bless its inventors.